03- Volatility Modleing S&P 500 Index

from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from arch import arch_model
from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf
import numpy as np
from tqdm import tqdm 

from arch.utility.exceptions import (
    ConvergenceWarning, DataScaleWarning, StartingValueWarning,
    convergence_warning, data_scale_warning, starting_value_warning)

import warnings 
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=RuntimeWarning)
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=ConvergenceWarning)
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=DataScaleWarning)

Read Data

from arch.data import sp500, vix
sp500 = sp500.load()
sp500_prices = sp500["Adj Close"]
returns = sp500_prices.pct_change().dropna()

vix = vix.load().squeeze().dropna()

fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(10,4))

# First plot
ax1.plot(returns, label='SP500 returns', color='blue')
ax1.set_ylabel('SP500 Returns', color='blue')
ax1.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='blue')

# Second plot
ax2 = ax1.twinx()
ax2.plot(vix, label='Vix', color='red')
ax2.set_ylabel('Vix', color='red')
ax2.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='red')

# Legend and title
fig.suptitle('SP500 Returns and Vix', fontsize=20)

# Show the plot
plt.show()

PACF of squared returns

plot_pacf(returns**2)
plt.show()

model = arch_model(returns, p=p, o=o, q=q)
model_fit = model.fit(disp='off', reindex=True)

test_size = 252*5
def rolling_predictions(retruns, p, o, q, test_size = 252*5):
    rolling_predictions = []   

    print('Generate Rolling predictions')
    for i in tqdm(range(test_size)):
        train = returns[:-(test_size-i)]
        model = arch_model(train, p=p, o=o, q=q)
        model_fit = model.fit(disp='off')
        pred = model_fit.forecast(horizon=1, reindex=True)
        rolling_predictions.append(np.sqrt(pred.variance.values[-1,:][0]))

    rolling_predictions = pd.Series(rolling_predictions, index=returns.index[-test_size:])    
    return rolling_predictions

def plot_prediction(rolling_predictions, returns, test_size = 252*5):
    plt.figure(figsize=(10,4))
    true, = plt.plot(returns[-test_size:], label='SP500 retruns')
    preds, = plt.plot(rolling_predictions, color='red', label='predicted volatility')
    plt.legend(loc='best')
    plt.title('Volatility Prediction - Rolling Forecast', fontsize=20)
    plt.show()

def assess_model(p, o, q):
    model = arch_model(returns, p=p, o=o, q=q)
    model_fit = model.fit(disp='off')
    print(model_fit.summary())
    preds = rolling_predictions(returns, p=p, o=o, q=q)
    plot_prediction(preds, returns)
    return preds

Test GARCH like models on real data

Try ARCH

pred_arch_10 = assess_model(p=10, o=0, q=0)

                      Constant Mean - ARCH Model Results                      
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:              Adj Close   R-squared:                       0.000
Mean Model:             Constant Mean   Adj. R-squared:                  0.000
Vol Model:                       ARCH   Log-Likelihood:                15785.4
Distribution:                  Normal   AIC:                          -31546.8
Method:            Maximum Likelihood   BIC:                          -31468.5
                                        No. Observations:                 5030
Date:                Sun, Apr 16 2023   Df Residuals:                     5029
Time:                        06:02:12   Df Model:                            1
                                 Mean Model                                 
============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|      95.0% Conf. Int.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
mu         4.2878e-04  1.369e-04      3.133  1.730e-03 [1.605e-04,6.970e-04]
                               Volatility Model                              
=============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|       95.0% Conf. Int.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
omega      7.8274e-05  4.865e-06     16.090  2.974e-58  [6.874e-05,8.781e-05]
alpha[1]       0.0199  9.199e-03      2.158  3.093e-02  [1.822e-03,3.788e-02]
alpha[2]       0.0273  9.680e-03      2.816  4.870e-03  [8.282e-03,4.623e-02]
alpha[3]       0.0199  8.765e-03      2.265  2.352e-02  [2.673e-03,3.703e-02]
alpha[4]       0.0199  9.972e-03      1.991  4.651e-02  [3.068e-04,3.940e-02]
alpha[5]       0.0199  7.797e-03      2.546  1.089e-02  [4.571e-03,3.513e-02]
alpha[6]       0.0199  8.493e-03      2.337  1.941e-02  [3.206e-03,3.650e-02]
alpha[7]       0.0199  9.108e-03      2.180  2.928e-02  [2.001e-03,3.770e-02]
alpha[8]       0.0199  8.907e-03      2.229  2.583e-02  [2.394e-03,3.731e-02]
alpha[9]       0.0199  1.187e-02      1.673  9.438e-02 [-3.409e-03,4.311e-02]
alpha[10]      0.0199  1.111e-02      1.787  7.399e-02 [-1.926e-03,4.163e-02]
=============================================================================

Covariance estimator: robust
Generate Rolling predictions

100%|██████████| 1260/1260 [01:58<00:00, 10.64it/s]

pred_arch = assess_model(p=3, o=0, q=0)

                      Constant Mean - ARCH Model Results                      
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:              Adj Close   R-squared:                       0.000
Mean Model:             Constant Mean   Adj. R-squared:                  0.000
Vol Model:                       ARCH   Log-Likelihood:                15635.2
Distribution:                  Normal   AIC:                          -31260.4
Method:            Maximum Likelihood   BIC:                          -31227.8
                                        No. Observations:                 5030
Date:                Sun, Apr 16 2023   Df Residuals:                     5029
Time:                        06:04:11   Df Model:                            1
                                 Mean Model                                 
============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|      95.0% Conf. Int.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
mu         4.0914e-04  1.496e-04      2.736  6.228e-03 [1.160e-04,7.023e-04]
                              Volatility Model                              
============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|      95.0% Conf. Int.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
omega      7.2355e-05  3.052e-06     23.709 2.915e-124 [6.637e-05,7.834e-05]
alpha[1]       0.0667  1.290e-02      5.169  2.357e-07 [4.139e-02,9.195e-02]
alpha[2]       0.0667  1.224e-02      5.446  5.148e-08 [4.267e-02,9.066e-02]
alpha[3]       0.0667  1.076e-02      6.197  5.766e-10 [4.558e-02,8.775e-02]
============================================================================

Covariance estimator: robust
Generate Rolling predictions

100%|██████████| 1260/1260 [00:25<00:00, 49.03it/s]

GARCH(3,3)

pred_arch = assess_model(p=3, o=0, q=3)

                     Constant Mean - GARCH Model Results                      
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:              Adj Close   R-squared:                       0.000
Mean Model:             Constant Mean   Adj. R-squared:                  0.000
Vol Model:                      GARCH   Log-Likelihood:                16221.3
Distribution:                  Normal   AIC:                          -32428.7
Method:            Maximum Likelihood   BIC:                          -32383.0
                                        No. Observations:                 5030
Date:                Tue, Apr 18 2023   Df Residuals:                     5029
Time:                        09:24:26   Df Model:                            1
                                 Mean Model                                 
============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|      95.0% Conf. Int.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
mu         5.5889e-04  2.487e-04      2.247  2.464e-02 [7.140e-05,1.046e-03]
                              Volatility Model                              
============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|      95.0% Conf. Int.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
omega      2.8942e-06  1.949e-10  1.485e+04      0.000 [2.894e-06,2.895e-06]
alpha[1]       0.0667  9.853e-02      0.677      0.499     [ -0.126,  0.260]
alpha[2]       0.0667      0.324      0.206      0.837     [ -0.569,  0.702]
alpha[3]       0.0667  5.549e-02      1.201      0.230  [-4.210e-02,  0.175]
beta[1]        0.3900      2.251      0.173      0.862     [ -4.021,  4.801]
beta[2]        0.3900      2.067      0.189      0.850     [ -3.660,  4.440]
============================================================================

Covariance estimator: robust
Generate Rolling predictions

 69%|██████▊   | 864/1260 [00:33<00:25, 15.64it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 96%|█████████▌| 1204/1260 [00:50<00:02, 22.24it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 8. The message is:
Positive directional derivative for linesearch
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
100%|██████████| 1260/1260 [00:52<00:00, 23.98it/s]

GJR-GARCH(3, 1, 3) ?

pred_arch = assess_model(p=3, o=2, q=3)

                   Constant Mean - GJR-GARCH Model Results                    
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable:              Adj Close   R-squared:                       0.000
Mean Model:             Constant Mean   Adj. R-squared:                  0.000
Vol Model:                  GJR-GARCH   Log-Likelihood:                16317.2
Distribution:                  Normal   AIC:                          -32614.3
Method:            Maximum Likelihood   BIC:                          -32549.1
                                        No. Observations:                 5030
Date:                Tue, Apr 18 2023   Df Residuals:                     5029
Time:                        09:27:02   Df Model:                            1
                                  Mean Model                                 
=============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|       95.0% Conf. Int.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
mu         1.4141e-04  2.219e-04      0.637      0.524 [-2.936e-04,5.764e-04]
                               Volatility Model                              
=============================================================================
                 coef    std err          t      P>|t|       95.0% Conf. Int.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
omega      2.8942e-06  1.647e-11  1.758e+05      0.000  [2.894e-06,2.894e-06]
alpha[1]       0.0167  5.641e-02      0.295      0.768   [-9.390e-02,  0.127]
alpha[2]       0.0167  3.606e-02      0.462      0.644 [-5.402e-02,8.735e-02]
alpha[3]       0.0167  3.952e-02      0.422      0.673 [-6.079e-02,9.412e-02]
gamma[1]       0.1000  9.379e-02      1.066      0.286   [-8.382e-02,  0.284]
gamma[2]       0.1000      0.111      0.902      0.367      [ -0.117,  0.317]
beta[1]        0.2767      1.026      0.270      0.787      [ -1.733,  2.287]
beta[2]        0.2767      1.240      0.223      0.823      [ -2.154,  2.707]
beta[3]        0.2767      0.452      0.612      0.541      [ -0.610,  1.163]
=============================================================================

Covariance estimator: robust
Generate Rolling predictions

  0%|          | 0/1260 [00:00<?, ?it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  0%|          | 2/1260 [00:00<01:04, 19.52it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  0%|          | 5/1260 [00:00<01:02, 19.97it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  1%|          | 8/1260 [00:00<01:03, 19.64it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 8. The message is:
Positive directional derivative for linesearch
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  1%|          | 10/1260 [00:00<01:19, 15.66it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  1%|          | 13/1260 [00:00<01:10, 17.80it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  1%|          | 15/1260 [00:00<01:08, 18.16it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  1%|▏         | 17/1260 [00:00<01:07, 18.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  2%|▏         | 20/1260 [00:01<00:58, 21.30it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  2%|▏         | 23/1260 [00:01<00:53, 23.12it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  2%|▏         | 26/1260 [00:01<00:49, 24.78it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  2%|▏         | 29/1260 [00:01<00:52, 23.49it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  3%|▎         | 32/1260 [00:01<01:02, 19.74it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  3%|▎         | 35/1260 [00:01<01:01, 19.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  3%|▎         | 39/1260 [00:01<00:53, 22.77it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  3%|▎         | 42/1260 [00:01<00:51, 23.76it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  4%|▎         | 45/1260 [00:02<00:51, 23.82it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  4%|▍         | 48/1260 [00:02<00:58, 20.76it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  4%|▍         | 52/1260 [00:02<00:54, 22.05it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  4%|▍         | 55/1260 [00:02<00:57, 20.99it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  5%|▍         | 58/1260 [00:02<00:57, 21.01it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  5%|▍         | 61/1260 [00:02<01:01, 19.41it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  5%|▌         | 64/1260 [00:03<01:01, 19.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  5%|▌         | 68/1260 [00:03<00:54, 21.89it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  6%|▌         | 71/1260 [00:03<00:56, 21.09it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  6%|▌         | 74/1260 [00:03<00:53, 21.98it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  6%|▌         | 77/1260 [00:03<00:51, 23.13it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  6%|▋         | 80/1260 [00:03<00:57, 20.52it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  7%|▋         | 86/1260 [00:04<01:02, 18.79it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  7%|▋         | 88/1260 [00:04<01:05, 17.96it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  7%|▋         | 90/1260 [00:04<01:16, 15.35it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  7%|▋         | 92/1260 [00:04<01:13, 15.95it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  7%|▋         | 94/1260 [00:04<01:12, 16.14it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  8%|▊         | 96/1260 [00:04<01:14, 15.70it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  8%|▊         | 98/1260 [00:04<01:10, 16.47it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  8%|▊         | 100/1260 [00:05<01:12, 16.05it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  8%|▊         | 102/1260 [00:05<01:12, 15.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  8%|▊         | 104/1260 [00:05<01:10, 16.51it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  8%|▊         | 107/1260 [00:05<01:04, 17.85it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  9%|▉         | 111/1260 [00:05<01:11, 16.18it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  9%|▉         | 113/1260 [00:05<01:10, 16.31it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  9%|▉         | 115/1260 [00:05<01:10, 16.14it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  9%|▉         | 117/1260 [00:06<01:07, 17.05it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
  9%|▉         | 119/1260 [00:06<01:12, 15.65it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 10%|▉         | 122/1260 [00:06<01:05, 17.31it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 10%|▉         | 124/1260 [00:06<01:04, 17.67it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 10%|█         | 126/1260 [00:06<01:07, 16.88it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 10%|█         | 128/1260 [00:06<01:10, 16.00it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 10%|█         | 130/1260 [00:06<01:13, 15.34it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 10%|█         | 132/1260 [00:07<01:13, 15.32it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 11%|█         | 135/1260 [00:07<01:10, 15.87it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 11%|█         | 138/1260 [00:07<01:02, 17.98it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 11%|█▏        | 142/1260 [00:07<01:03, 17.60it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 11%|█▏        | 144/1260 [00:07<01:07, 16.63it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 12%|█▏        | 147/1260 [00:07<01:01, 18.24it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 12%|█▏        | 153/1260 [00:08<01:13, 15.03it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 12%|█▏        | 155/1260 [00:08<01:14, 14.93it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 12%|█▏        | 157/1260 [00:08<01:09, 15.76it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 13%|█▎        | 159/1260 [00:08<01:11, 15.46it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 13%|█▎        | 161/1260 [00:08<01:10, 15.58it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 13%|█▎        | 164/1260 [00:08<01:03, 17.15it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 13%|█▎        | 166/1260 [00:09<01:07, 16.21it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 13%|█▎        | 168/1260 [00:09<01:06, 16.45it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 13%|█▎        | 170/1260 [00:09<01:10, 15.54it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 14%|█▎        | 172/1260 [00:09<01:06, 16.29it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 14%|█▍        | 175/1260 [00:09<01:03, 17.12it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 14%|█▍        | 177/1260 [00:09<01:01, 17.54it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 14%|█▍        | 179/1260 [00:09<01:04, 16.89it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 14%|█▍        | 181/1260 [00:09<01:04, 16.66it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 15%|█▍        | 186/1260 [00:10<01:03, 16.89it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 15%|█▍        | 188/1260 [00:10<01:10, 15.13it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 15%|█▌        | 190/1260 [00:10<01:15, 14.19it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 15%|█▌        | 192/1260 [00:10<01:14, 14.29it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 15%|█▌        | 194/1260 [00:10<01:14, 14.38it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 16%|█▌        | 197/1260 [00:11<01:09, 15.32it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 16%|█▌        | 199/1260 [00:11<01:06, 15.88it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 16%|█▌        | 201/1260 [00:11<01:11, 14.90it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 16%|█▌        | 203/1260 [00:11<01:08, 15.48it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 16%|█▋        | 205/1260 [00:11<01:10, 15.06it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 16%|█▋        | 207/1260 [00:11<01:09, 15.19it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 17%|█▋        | 209/1260 [00:11<01:07, 15.49it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 17%|█▋        | 211/1260 [00:11<01:03, 16.45it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 17%|█▋        | 213/1260 [00:12<01:00, 17.30it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 17%|█▋        | 216/1260 [00:12<00:51, 20.28it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 17%|█▋        | 219/1260 [00:12<01:00, 17.23it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 18%|█▊        | 221/1260 [00:12<01:02, 16.57it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 18%|█▊        | 223/1260 [00:12<01:02, 16.70it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 18%|█▊        | 226/1260 [00:12<00:54, 18.84it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 18%|█▊        | 228/1260 [00:12<00:55, 18.63it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 18%|█▊        | 230/1260 [00:12<00:57, 17.82it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 18%|█▊        | 233/1260 [00:13<00:51, 20.09it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 19%|█▊        | 236/1260 [00:13<00:51, 20.02it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 19%|█▉        | 239/1260 [00:13<00:51, 19.75it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 19%|█▉        | 242/1260 [00:13<00:51, 19.60it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 19%|█▉        | 245/1260 [00:13<00:47, 21.23it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 20%|█▉        | 248/1260 [00:13<00:52, 19.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 20%|█▉        | 250/1260 [00:13<00:54, 18.68it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 20%|██        | 252/1260 [00:14<01:00, 16.79it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 20%|██        | 256/1260 [00:14<00:51, 19.53it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 21%|██        | 259/1260 [00:14<00:48, 20.75it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 21%|██        | 262/1260 [00:14<00:44, 22.23it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 21%|██        | 265/1260 [00:14<00:50, 19.88it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 21%|██▏       | 268/1260 [00:14<00:48, 20.25it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 22%|██▏       | 271/1260 [00:15<00:51, 19.24it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 22%|██▏       | 276/1260 [00:15<00:53, 18.36it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 22%|██▏       | 278/1260 [00:15<00:56, 17.32it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 22%|██▏       | 281/1260 [00:15<00:51, 19.10it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 23%|██▎       | 285/1260 [00:15<00:43, 22.38it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 23%|██▎       | 288/1260 [00:15<00:48, 20.03it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 23%|██▎       | 291/1260 [00:16<00:45, 21.12it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 23%|██▎       | 294/1260 [00:16<00:42, 22.60it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 24%|██▎       | 298/1260 [00:16<00:37, 25.85it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 24%|██▍       | 301/1260 [00:16<00:38, 25.01it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 24%|██▍       | 307/1260 [00:16<00:39, 23.84it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 25%|██▍       | 312/1260 [00:16<00:35, 26.92it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 25%|██▌       | 320/1260 [00:17<00:34, 27.11it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 26%|██▌       | 323/1260 [00:17<00:34, 27.32it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 26%|██▌       | 326/1260 [00:17<00:38, 24.10it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 26%|██▌       | 329/1260 [00:17<00:39, 23.46it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 27%|██▋       | 335/1260 [00:17<00:43, 21.45it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 27%|██▋       | 338/1260 [00:17<00:46, 19.79it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 27%|██▋       | 341/1260 [00:18<00:47, 19.21it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 27%|██▋       | 344/1260 [00:18<00:45, 20.27it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 28%|██▊       | 350/1260 [00:18<00:46, 19.72it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 28%|██▊       | 352/1260 [00:18<00:46, 19.34it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 28%|██▊       | 354/1260 [00:18<00:46, 19.34it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 28%|██▊       | 356/1260 [00:18<00:48, 18.76it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 28%|██▊       | 358/1260 [00:19<00:49, 18.18it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 29%|██▊       | 361/1260 [00:19<00:47, 18.99it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 29%|██▉       | 363/1260 [00:19<00:50, 17.63it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 29%|██▉       | 368/1260 [00:19<00:47, 18.72it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 30%|██▉       | 372/1260 [00:19<00:48, 18.38it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 30%|██▉       | 375/1260 [00:19<00:42, 20.98it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 30%|███       | 378/1260 [00:20<00:41, 21.10it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 30%|███       | 381/1260 [00:20<00:48, 18.23it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 30%|███       | 384/1260 [00:20<00:50, 17.44it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 31%|███       | 387/1260 [00:20<00:47, 18.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 31%|███       | 389/1260 [00:20<00:46, 18.74it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 31%|███▏      | 395/1260 [00:20<00:39, 21.96it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 32%|███▏      | 398/1260 [00:21<00:43, 20.00it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 32%|███▏      | 401/1260 [00:21<00:40, 21.35it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 32%|███▏      | 404/1260 [00:21<00:39, 21.72it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 32%|███▏      | 407/1260 [00:21<00:37, 22.91it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 33%|███▎      | 410/1260 [00:21<00:41, 20.45it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 33%|███▎      | 413/1260 [00:21<00:43, 19.31it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 33%|███▎      | 416/1260 [00:21<00:43, 19.35it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 33%|███▎      | 418/1260 [00:22<00:49, 17.00it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 33%|███▎      | 421/1260 [00:22<00:46, 18.16it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 34%|███▎      | 425/1260 [00:22<00:38, 21.88it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 34%|███▍      | 433/1260 [00:22<00:33, 24.34it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 35%|███▍      | 439/1260 [00:23<00:37, 21.99it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 35%|███▌      | 447/1260 [00:23<00:30, 26.59it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 36%|███▌      | 450/1260 [00:23<00:37, 21.88it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 36%|███▌      | 453/1260 [00:23<00:35, 22.90it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 36%|███▌      | 456/1260 [00:23<00:36, 22.26it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 36%|███▋      | 459/1260 [00:23<00:40, 19.99it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 37%|███▋      | 462/1260 [00:24<00:41, 19.24it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 37%|███▋      | 465/1260 [00:24<00:46, 17.16it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 37%|███▋      | 468/1260 [00:24<00:43, 18.32it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 37%|███▋      | 471/1260 [00:24<00:41, 18.99it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 38%|███▊      | 473/1260 [00:24<00:41, 18.88it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 38%|███▊      | 476/1260 [00:24<00:39, 19.87it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 38%|███▊      | 479/1260 [00:24<00:38, 20.31it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 38%|███▊      | 485/1260 [00:25<00:43, 17.69it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 39%|███▊      | 487/1260 [00:25<00:42, 18.06it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 39%|███▉      | 490/1260 [00:25<00:40, 19.18it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 39%|███▉      | 493/1260 [00:25<00:38, 19.78it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 39%|███▉      | 496/1260 [00:25<00:42, 18.17it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 40%|███▉      | 501/1260 [00:26<00:42, 17.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 40%|███▉      | 503/1260 [00:26<00:42, 17.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 40%|████      | 505/1260 [00:26<00:42, 17.57it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 40%|████      | 507/1260 [00:26<00:46, 16.06it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 40%|████      | 510/1260 [00:26<00:41, 17.92it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 41%|████      | 512/1260 [00:26<00:40, 18.33it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 41%|████      | 516/1260 [00:27<00:41, 17.80it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 41%|████      | 518/1260 [00:27<00:42, 17.30it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 41%|████▏     | 521/1260 [00:27<00:40, 18.30it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 42%|████▏     | 524/1260 [00:27<00:36, 20.38it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 42%|████▏     | 527/1260 [00:27<00:35, 20.58it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 42%|████▏     | 530/1260 [00:27<00:35, 20.71it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 42%|████▏     | 533/1260 [00:27<00:33, 21.54it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 43%|████▎     | 539/1260 [00:28<00:38, 18.58it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 43%|████▎     | 543/1260 [00:28<00:38, 18.50it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 43%|████▎     | 546/1260 [00:28<00:38, 18.47it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 43%|████▎     | 548/1260 [00:28<00:38, 18.37it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 44%|████▎     | 550/1260 [00:28<00:39, 18.03it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 44%|████▍     | 552/1260 [00:28<00:41, 16.96it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 44%|████▍     | 554/1260 [00:29<00:40, 17.56it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 45%|████▍     | 563/1260 [00:29<00:34, 20.34it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 45%|████▌     | 567/1260 [00:29<00:31, 21.89it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 45%|████▌     | 570/1260 [00:29<00:34, 20.15it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 45%|████▌     | 573/1260 [00:30<00:33, 20.42it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 46%|████▌     | 576/1260 [00:30<00:33, 20.70it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 46%|████▌     | 579/1260 [00:30<00:33, 20.11it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 46%|████▋     | 585/1260 [00:30<00:38, 17.31it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 47%|████▋     | 588/1260 [00:30<00:35, 18.77it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 47%|████▋     | 591/1260 [00:30<00:34, 19.64it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 47%|████▋     | 594/1260 [00:31<00:35, 18.91it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 47%|████▋     | 596/1260 [00:31<00:38, 17.42it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 47%|████▋     | 598/1260 [00:31<00:37, 17.60it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 48%|████▊     | 600/1260 [00:31<00:40, 16.30it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 48%|████▊     | 602/1260 [00:31<00:38, 16.97it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 48%|████▊     | 606/1260 [00:31<00:40, 16.00it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 48%|████▊     | 608/1260 [00:32<00:41, 15.58it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 49%|████▊     | 612/1260 [00:32<00:37, 17.23it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 49%|████▉     | 615/1260 [00:32<00:35, 17.97it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 49%|████▉     | 617/1260 [00:32<00:42, 15.30it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 49%|████▉     | 619/1260 [00:32<00:40, 15.69it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 49%|████▉     | 622/1260 [00:32<00:38, 16.48it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 50%|████▉     | 625/1260 [00:33<00:37, 17.14it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 50%|████▉     | 627/1260 [00:33<00:36, 17.57it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 50%|█████     | 630/1260 [00:33<00:32, 19.67it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 50%|█████     | 633/1260 [00:33<00:32, 19.07it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 50%|█████     | 636/1260 [00:33<00:34, 18.12it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 51%|█████     | 639/1260 [00:33<00:33, 18.35it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 51%|█████     | 641/1260 [00:33<00:35, 17.63it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 51%|█████     | 643/1260 [00:33<00:34, 17.96it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 51%|█████     | 645/1260 [00:34<00:34, 17.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 51%|█████▏    | 647/1260 [00:34<00:33, 18.18it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 52%|█████▏    | 649/1260 [00:34<00:34, 17.96it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 52%|█████▏    | 651/1260 [00:34<00:34, 17.66it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 52%|█████▏    | 653/1260 [00:34<00:34, 17.73it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 52%|█████▏    | 661/1260 [00:35<00:34, 17.14it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 53%|█████▎    | 664/1260 [00:35<00:32, 18.58it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 53%|█████▎    | 667/1260 [00:35<00:30, 19.17it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 53%|█████▎    | 669/1260 [00:35<00:32, 18.05it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 53%|█████▎    | 671/1260 [00:35<00:33, 17.46it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 53%|█████▎    | 673/1260 [00:35<00:33, 17.56it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 54%|█████▎    | 676/1260 [00:35<00:30, 18.97it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 54%|█████▍    | 678/1260 [00:35<00:31, 18.54it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 54%|█████▍    | 680/1260 [00:36<00:32, 18.09it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 54%|█████▍    | 685/1260 [00:36<00:30, 18.63it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 55%|█████▍    | 687/1260 [00:36<00:32, 17.90it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 55%|█████▌    | 693/1260 [00:36<00:25, 22.20it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 55%|█████▌    | 696/1260 [00:36<00:28, 19.98it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 55%|█████▌    | 699/1260 [00:37<00:29, 18.71it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 56%|█████▌    | 701/1260 [00:37<00:29, 18.82it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 56%|█████▌    | 705/1260 [00:37<00:31, 17.49it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 56%|█████▌    | 707/1260 [00:37<00:32, 17.27it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 56%|█████▋    | 711/1260 [00:37<00:34, 15.83it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 57%|█████▋    | 714/1260 [00:37<00:29, 18.55it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 57%|█████▋    | 717/1260 [00:38<00:27, 20.09it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 57%|█████▋    | 722/1260 [00:38<00:29, 18.43it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 58%|█████▊    | 726/1260 [00:38<00:29, 17.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 58%|█████▊    | 728/1260 [00:38<00:33, 15.83it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 58%|█████▊    | 730/1260 [00:38<00:36, 14.57it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 58%|█████▊    | 732/1260 [00:39<00:37, 14.26it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 58%|█████▊    | 734/1260 [00:39<00:35, 14.93it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 58%|█████▊    | 736/1260 [00:39<00:34, 15.00it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 59%|█████▊    | 738/1260 [00:39<00:33, 15.43it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 59%|█████▊    | 740/1260 [00:39<00:33, 15.73it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 59%|█████▉    | 744/1260 [00:39<00:31, 16.36it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 59%|█████▉    | 746/1260 [00:39<00:31, 16.27it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 60%|█████▉    | 751/1260 [00:40<00:31, 16.13it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 60%|█████▉    | 753/1260 [00:40<00:34, 14.71it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 60%|██████    | 756/1260 [00:40<00:29, 17.11it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 60%|██████    | 759/1260 [00:40<00:28, 17.60it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 60%|██████    | 761/1260 [00:40<00:28, 17.27it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 61%|██████    | 763/1260 [00:40<00:29, 16.61it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 61%|██████    | 765/1260 [00:41<00:33, 14.59it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 61%|██████    | 767/1260 [00:41<00:35, 13.96it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 61%|██████    | 769/1260 [00:41<00:32, 14.96it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 61%|██████    | 771/1260 [00:41<00:31, 15.35it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 61%|██████▏   | 773/1260 [00:41<00:32, 15.01it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 62%|██████▏   | 779/1260 [00:41<00:26, 18.16it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 62%|██████▏   | 782/1260 [00:42<00:25, 18.97it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 62%|██████▏   | 785/1260 [00:42<00:23, 20.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 63%|██████▎   | 788/1260 [00:42<00:24, 19.59it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 63%|██████▎   | 791/1260 [00:42<00:23, 19.65it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 63%|██████▎   | 793/1260 [00:42<00:24, 18.93it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 63%|██████▎   | 796/1260 [00:42<00:22, 20.56it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 63%|██████▎   | 799/1260 [00:42<00:22, 20.89it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 64%|██████▎   | 802/1260 [00:43<00:24, 18.89it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 64%|██████▍   | 805/1260 [00:43<00:21, 21.07it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 64%|██████▍   | 808/1260 [00:43<00:20, 22.08it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 64%|██████▍   | 811/1260 [00:43<00:20, 21.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 65%|██████▍   | 814/1260 [00:43<00:20, 21.87it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 65%|██████▍   | 817/1260 [00:43<00:19, 22.17it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 65%|██████▌   | 820/1260 [00:43<00:20, 21.62it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 65%|██████▌   | 823/1260 [00:44<00:21, 19.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 66%|██████▌   | 826/1260 [00:44<00:25, 16.76it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 66%|██████▌   | 828/1260 [00:44<00:26, 16.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 66%|██████▌   | 831/1260 [00:44<00:25, 16.92it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 66%|██████▌   | 833/1260 [00:44<00:25, 16.53it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 66%|██████▋   | 835/1260 [00:44<00:25, 16.79it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 66%|██████▋   | 837/1260 [00:44<00:25, 16.56it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 67%|██████▋   | 839/1260 [00:45<00:25, 16.40it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 67%|██████▋   | 841/1260 [00:45<00:25, 16.48it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 67%|██████▋   | 845/1260 [00:45<00:27, 15.09it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 67%|██████▋   | 848/1260 [00:45<00:22, 18.17it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 68%|██████▊   | 851/1260 [00:45<00:20, 19.63it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 68%|██████▊   | 854/1260 [00:45<00:20, 20.20it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 68%|██████▊   | 857/1260 [00:45<00:19, 20.62it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 68%|██████▊   | 860/1260 [00:46<00:23, 17.12it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 68%|██████▊   | 862/1260 [00:46<00:23, 16.78it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 69%|██████▊   | 864/1260 [00:46<00:22, 17.45it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 69%|██████▊   | 866/1260 [00:46<00:24, 15.79it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 69%|██████▉   | 868/1260 [00:46<00:26, 14.75it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 69%|██████▉   | 871/1260 [00:46<00:24, 16.06it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 69%|██████▉   | 873/1260 [00:47<00:22, 16.92it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 69%|██████▉   | 875/1260 [00:47<00:22, 17.16it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 70%|██████▉   | 880/1260 [00:47<00:22, 16.78it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 70%|███████   | 882/1260 [00:47<00:22, 16.57it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 70%|███████   | 888/1260 [00:47<00:20, 18.17it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 71%|███████   | 890/1260 [00:47<00:19, 18.55it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 71%|███████   | 892/1260 [00:48<00:20, 18.34it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 71%|███████   | 894/1260 [00:48<00:19, 18.41it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 71%|███████   | 896/1260 [00:48<00:19, 18.70it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 71%|███████▏  | 898/1260 [00:48<00:20, 17.71it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 72%|███████▏  | 901/1260 [00:48<00:18, 19.85it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 72%|███████▏  | 904/1260 [00:48<00:16, 21.35it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 72%|███████▏  | 907/1260 [00:48<00:15, 22.80it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 72%|███████▏  | 910/1260 [00:48<00:16, 20.94it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 73%|███████▎  | 915/1260 [00:49<00:21, 15.96it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 73%|███████▎  | 917/1260 [00:49<00:21, 15.97it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 73%|███████▎  | 920/1260 [00:49<00:20, 16.75it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 73%|███████▎  | 922/1260 [00:49<00:19, 17.40it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 73%|███████▎  | 924/1260 [00:49<00:19, 17.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 73%|███████▎  | 926/1260 [00:49<00:20, 16.43it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 74%|███████▎  | 929/1260 [00:50<00:17, 18.54it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 74%|███████▍  | 931/1260 [00:50<00:17, 18.56it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 74%|███████▍  | 935/1260 [00:50<00:20, 16.24it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 75%|███████▍  | 939/1260 [00:50<00:19, 16.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 75%|███████▍  | 942/1260 [00:50<00:17, 18.26it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 75%|███████▍  | 944/1260 [00:50<00:16, 18.68it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 75%|███████▌  | 948/1260 [00:51<00:20, 15.25it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 75%|███████▌  | 951/1260 [00:51<00:17, 17.28it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 76%|███████▌  | 953/1260 [00:51<00:17, 17.36it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 76%|███████▌  | 956/1260 [00:51<00:16, 18.51it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 76%|███████▌  | 958/1260 [00:51<00:16, 17.90it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 76%|███████▌  | 960/1260 [00:51<00:17, 17.18it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 77%|███████▋  | 966/1260 [00:52<00:14, 19.65it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 77%|███████▋  | 969/1260 [00:52<00:16, 17.34it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 77%|███████▋  | 971/1260 [00:52<00:16, 17.84it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 77%|███████▋  | 974/1260 [00:52<00:14, 19.38it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 78%|███████▊  | 977/1260 [00:52<00:15, 17.87it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 78%|███████▊  | 979/1260 [00:52<00:15, 18.19it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 78%|███████▊  | 982/1260 [00:53<00:14, 19.65it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 78%|███████▊  | 985/1260 [00:53<00:13, 21.00it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 78%|███████▊  | 988/1260 [00:53<00:14, 18.87it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 79%|███████▊  | 991/1260 [00:53<00:13, 20.33it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 79%|███████▉  | 994/1260 [00:53<00:12, 20.77it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 79%|███████▉  | 997/1260 [00:53<00:14, 17.79it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 79%|███████▉  | 1000/1260 [00:54<00:14, 18.14it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 80%|███████▉  | 1002/1260 [00:54<00:13, 18.47it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 80%|███████▉  | 1004/1260 [00:54<00:13, 18.47it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 80%|███████▉  | 1006/1260 [00:54<00:14, 17.85it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 80%|████████  | 1008/1260 [00:54<00:13, 18.24it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 80%|████████  | 1010/1260 [00:54<00:13, 18.69it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 80%|████████  | 1013/1260 [00:54<00:12, 20.22it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 81%|████████  | 1016/1260 [00:54<00:11, 22.16it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 81%|████████  | 1019/1260 [00:54<00:11, 20.30it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 81%|████████  | 1022/1260 [00:55<00:13, 18.24it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 81%|████████▏ | 1025/1260 [00:55<00:11, 20.18it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 82%|████████▏ | 1028/1260 [00:55<00:11, 20.15it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 82%|████████▏ | 1031/1260 [00:55<00:11, 20.09it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 82%|████████▏ | 1034/1260 [00:55<00:10, 22.20it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 82%|████████▏ | 1037/1260 [00:55<00:10, 22.03it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 83%|████████▎ | 1041/1260 [00:55<00:08, 24.57it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 83%|████████▎ | 1044/1260 [00:56<00:09, 22.26it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 83%|████████▎ | 1047/1260 [00:56<00:09, 21.39it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 83%|████████▎ | 1050/1260 [00:56<00:10, 19.33it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 84%|████████▎ | 1053/1260 [00:56<00:10, 20.60it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 84%|████████▍ | 1056/1260 [00:56<00:11, 18.30it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 84%|████████▍ | 1059/1260 [00:56<00:09, 20.36it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 84%|████████▍ | 1062/1260 [00:57<00:09, 20.57it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 85%|████████▍ | 1065/1260 [00:57<00:09, 20.42it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 86%|████████▌ | 1078/1260 [00:57<00:08, 22.49it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 86%|████████▌ | 1081/1260 [00:57<00:07, 22.71it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 86%|████████▌ | 1084/1260 [00:57<00:07, 23.93it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 86%|████████▋ | 1087/1260 [00:58<00:07, 24.47it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 87%|████████▋ | 1090/1260 [00:58<00:07, 23.33it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 87%|████████▋ | 1093/1260 [00:58<00:06, 24.46it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 87%|████████▋ | 1096/1260 [00:58<00:07, 21.97it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 87%|████████▋ | 1102/1260 [00:58<00:07, 21.36it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 88%|████████▊ | 1105/1260 [00:58<00:06, 22.86it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 88%|████████▊ | 1108/1260 [00:59<00:07, 21.64it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 88%|████████▊ | 1111/1260 [00:59<00:07, 19.38it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 88%|████████▊ | 1114/1260 [00:59<00:06, 21.26it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 89%|████████▉ | 1120/1260 [00:59<00:05, 24.46it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 89%|████████▉ | 1123/1260 [00:59<00:06, 22.29it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 89%|████████▉ | 1126/1260 [00:59<00:06, 20.49it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 90%|████████▉ | 1129/1260 [01:00<00:06, 21.46it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 90%|████████▉ | 1132/1260 [01:00<00:06, 21.26it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 90%|█████████ | 1135/1260 [01:00<00:06, 19.15it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 90%|█████████ | 1138/1260 [01:00<00:06, 17.77it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 90%|█████████ | 1140/1260 [01:00<00:06, 17.16it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 91%|█████████ | 1142/1260 [01:00<00:06, 17.54it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 91%|█████████ | 1144/1260 [01:00<00:06, 17.72it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 91%|█████████ | 1147/1260 [01:01<00:05, 19.60it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 91%|█████████ | 1149/1260 [01:01<00:05, 19.10it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 91%|█████████▏| 1151/1260 [01:01<00:05, 18.55it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 92%|█████████▏| 1154/1260 [01:01<00:05, 20.26it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 92%|█████████▏| 1157/1260 [01:01<00:04, 21.05it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 92%|█████████▏| 1160/1260 [01:01<00:04, 20.42it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 92%|█████████▏| 1163/1260 [01:01<00:04, 19.46it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 93%|█████████▎| 1166/1260 [01:02<00:04, 19.38it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 93%|█████████▎| 1168/1260 [01:02<00:05, 17.95it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 93%|█████████▎| 1170/1260 [01:02<00:05, 17.69it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 93%|█████████▎| 1173/1260 [01:02<00:04, 19.21it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 93%|█████████▎| 1176/1260 [01:02<00:04, 18.81it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 93%|█████████▎| 1178/1260 [01:02<00:04, 19.07it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 94%|█████████▎| 1181/1260 [01:02<00:03, 21.18it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 94%|█████████▍| 1184/1260 [01:02<00:03, 19.79it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 94%|█████████▍| 1187/1260 [01:03<00:03, 19.52it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 94%|█████████▍| 1189/1260 [01:03<00:03, 19.01it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 95%|█████████▍| 1192/1260 [01:03<00:03, 20.16it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 95%|█████████▍| 1195/1260 [01:03<00:03, 18.79it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 95%|█████████▌| 1198/1260 [01:03<00:03, 20.53it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 95%|█████████▌| 1201/1260 [01:03<00:03, 18.48it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 96%|█████████▌| 1204/1260 [01:04<00:03, 17.98it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 96%|█████████▌| 1206/1260 [01:04<00:02, 18.32it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 96%|█████████▌| 1208/1260 [01:04<00:03, 16.81it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 96%|█████████▌| 1211/1260 [01:04<00:02, 18.53it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 96%|█████████▋| 1214/1260 [01:04<00:02, 18.36it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 97%|█████████▋| 1217/1260 [01:04<00:02, 19.56it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 97%|█████████▋| 1221/1260 [01:05<00:02, 17.55it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 97%|█████████▋| 1224/1260 [01:05<00:01, 18.89it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 97%|█████████▋| 1226/1260 [01:05<00:01, 18.69it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 97%|█████████▋| 1228/1260 [01:05<00:01, 18.24it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 98%|█████████▊| 1232/1260 [01:05<00:01, 17.15it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 98%|█████████▊| 1235/1260 [01:05<00:01, 18.91it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 98%|█████████▊| 1237/1260 [01:05<00:01, 17.50it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 98%|█████████▊| 1239/1260 [01:05<00:01, 17.95it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 98%|█████████▊| 1241/1260 [01:06<00:01, 18.33it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 99%|█████████▊| 1243/1260 [01:06<00:00, 18.65it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 99%|█████████▉| 1246/1260 [01:06<00:00, 18.54it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 99%|█████████▉| 1248/1260 [01:06<00:00, 16.37it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
 99%|█████████▉| 1250/1260 [01:06<00:00, 15.28it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
100%|█████████▉| 1256/1260 [01:07<00:00, 16.49it/s]/home/ubuntu/Documents/Projects/STI_FX_Intervention/.venv/lib/python3.9/site-packages/arch/univariate/base.py:756: ConvergenceWarning: The optimizer returned code 4. The message is:
Inequality constraints incompatible
See scipy.optimize.fmin_slsqp for code meaning.

  warnings.warn(
100%|██████████| 1260/1260 [01:07<00:00, 18.74it/s]

How to use the model

model = arch_model(returns, p=3, o=2, q=3)
model_fit = model.fit(disp='off')

# Generate Next 3 days Prediction
pred = model_fit.forecast(horizon=3)
future_dates = [returns.index[-1] + timedelta(days=i) for i in range(1,4)]
pred = pd.Series(np.sqrt(pred.variance.values[-1,:]), index=future_dates)

plt.figure(figsize=(10,4))
plt.plot(pred)
plt.title('Volatility Prediction - Next 7 Days', fontsize=20)

Text(0.5, 1.0, 'Volatility Prediction - Next 7 Days')